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WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE
September 12, 2019
Natural Gas

Despite falling slightly for two consecutive days, October 2019 futures are up 25 cents in the last two weeks, now to three month highs.

After today's injection of 84 Bcf, we are closing in on 3,000 Bcf of gas in storage and also the five year average of 3,023 Bcf.
Electricity

The 30 day average price of real time power is rebounding. Now up over $24/MWh after dropping just below $22/MWh last week.

Electricity futures continue to rise with the resurgence of gas prices. The 12 month strip is up over $1.50/MWh in the last two weeks.
 
 
12 & 24 Month NYMEX Strip
12 & 24 Month Zone A Power Strip
 
 
 
This document is intended for indicative purposes only. All information contained within this report is acquired from third party sources and EnergyMark makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy of the information provided herein. EnergyMark is not liable for any actions or decisions made in reliance on the information provided in the report.
There is an ongoing battle in New York that pits the Andrew Cuomo administration against the natural gas, utilities, and pipeline industries. The latest saga involves a blockade of pipelines forcing Consolidated Edison and National Grid to quit providing new gas connections to customers in and around the New York City service area. State regulators are investigating, with the Northeast Supply Enhancement being the key pipeline in that fight.
The first thing to know is that natural gas is New York’s main source of energy, at 1,280 Trillion Btu, or double what second place gasoline offers. Secondly, in 2018, natural gas led and generated 40% of New York’s electricity.
The planned closure of Indian Point in 2021 signals little hope for nuclear, and hydro power also face retirements since the fleet’s average age is almost 60 years old. So ultimately, New York’s energy future lies in an old fashioned shootout between gas, wind, and solar power. The reality though is that all three will be important, in many ways working together, with gas remaining the linchpin.
New York’s new goal is for 70% of the state’s electricity to come from renewables by 2030 and a zero-emission power supply by 2040.
Today, wind (3%) and solar (1%) provide 4% of the state’s electricity (plus ~20% from Hydro). Scaling up so much renewables to displace gas will not be as easy as some are claiming. Onshore wind, for instance, the longtime go-to source for more renewable power, will not be leaned on all that much. For example, the new law calls for New York to have 6 GW of installed solar power capacity by 2025 from about 1.7 GW now, and 9 GW of offshore wind power by 2035 from zero now. This would still be well below the 20 GW that gas has now.
In formulating sound energy policy, we must remain practical. While wind and solar are growing and will remain vital components of the U.S. energy mix, gas plants will be essential to the grid to help maintain system reliability and grid resilience.
 
WEATHER WATCH
 
NOAA 8-14 Day Outlook
NOAA 30 Day Outlook
 
Check out this video explaining community solar from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority!
 
 
 
 


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